Match forecasts
Two models. Side-by-side probabilities and recorded stakes.
Start times are chronological. Past and completed matches remain in the source feed.
| Start Sydney | Match Player A / Player B | Odds Selected bookmaker | Market Normalised A / B | Model 1 Win probability | Stake 1 Bet365 · per $1 | Model 2 Win probability | Stake 2 Bet365 · per $1 | Game lines Bookmaker only | Source link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading match forecasts… | |||||||||
Odds, probabilities & stake signals
Bookmaker fallbackUse the first valid A/B odds pair: Bet365 → Unibet → Ladbrokes → Betfair → best available. Best available can combine two bookmakers; each side is labelled. Market probabilities are inverse odds normalised to sum to 100%.
Recorded stakesStake columns and signal filters always use each model’s Bet365 stakes, even when displayed odds use another bookmaker. $0 means no bet; a dash means unavailable. Stakes are fractions of a fresh $1 bankroll per match. Hover a stake to see its recorded Bet365 price.
Source coverageZero-stake, completed and older matches stay visible. The robustness badge is supplied by the model; “not rated” means the source says not_used. Game lines use the selected bookmaker when available; a “source” label identifies the generic feed line.
Model performance
Bet365 opening odds · fixed $1 bankroll per match · no compounding
Forecast quality
Matched observations for a fair comparison.
| Forecast | Brier score | Accuracy | Scored matches | Accuracy sample |
|---|
Opening-bet ledger
Positive stakes only. Unresolved decisions remain visible but do not count in returns.
| Date / model | Match / tournament | Selection / opening odds | Stake | Net profit | Settlement |
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Hover, tap, or use ← / → to inspect a date. Changing the date range starts the cumulative calculations again at the selected start. Dates use Sydney match time.
Daily cumulative values
Metric definitions & data coverage
Return metricsROI = net profit ÷ amount staked. Number of bets counts positive-stake sides; average stake = amount staked ÷ bets. Recorded profit is summed as dollars, with a fresh $1 allocation for every match. Model strategies are evaluated independently.
Forecast metricsBinary Brier is mean (probability A − outcome A)². Accuracy is how often the higher-probability player wins; exact 50/50 forecasts are excluded from its denominator. Bet365 probabilities are normalised opening inverse odds. No betting strategy is invented for the market benchmark.
Eligibility & datesReturns require completed results, no review flag, valid stakes/odds and recorded profit. Forecasts use settled outcomes; stored Brier values inconsistent with probability/outcome are excluded and counted below. The robustness filter uses Model 1’s rating to select the same matches for every comparison. Missing dates are excluded only when a date bound is set and always omitted from charts.